Why I’m Green


Green Grass Whilst I have written on occasion for the Red Team on TalkClimateChange, I am predominantly a Green Team writer – generally believing that environmental concerns should be at the forefront of our agenda. With increasing population and consumption I believe that we are driving down a cul-de-sac, blind to the consequences of our reckless use of the finite resources that support us.

That said, I don’t support blanket environmentalism either. I frequently support the blue point of view, based on the understanding that principle can rarely be put before practicality. Many of us enjoy unprecedented standards of living, have long life expectancies and enjoy more leisure time than ever before. The social and economic systems that have provided these benefits are as fragile as our climate and our transition to a low carbon economy must be carefully managed.

With this in mind, I much enjoyed fellow TalkClimateChange writer Daryl’s story “Red, Green and Blue - Living Together in Me” in which he echoes many of my sentiments, with one exception:

That’s correct, it [manmade climate change] does not exist - the minuscule change in global temperature is insignificant to the planet and to the climate in particular. To even think that we can somehow pick our climate and control the patterns of storms and floods by regulating a gas created or consumed by every living thing on the planet is so amazingly arrogant that it defies explanation.

At the risk of demonstrating the arrogance that Daryl talks of, and incurring the wrath of my learned friend in the process, I would like to set out my opposition to this statement and explain the principles at the root of my green attitudes:

I’ll take each of the specific points in Daryl’s statement in turn:

The miniscule change in temperature is insignificant – Yes, insignificant in that a half of one degree may not sound like a big deal. But in terms of the sensitivities of climatic systems to changes in global temperatures, together with the subsequent dependencies of ecological systems upon our climate these small shifts are a big deal. And yes, the temperature has changed before, but not at a time when 6 billion people were living on the planet, whose infrastructure and way of life were heavily dependent on certain sets of climate parameters.

It’s not about picking our climate – Right, I’d like a balmy 30 degrees for 9 months a year, followed by 3 months of cold fresh snow for Christmas and Winter sports, but unfortunately we will never be able to control a force of nature as strong as our climate. What we can do is influence the rate of change by reducing the vast quantities of greenhouse gas that we currently pump into our atmosphere. The principle here is not so much of control, but of reduction in negative influence.

By regulating a gas created or consumed by every living thing on the planet – “CO2 is not a poison, it’s plant food” is a favourite climate skeptic expression. It’s also very true, except that it conveniently ignores the greenhouse effect - the physics of which are easy to understand: increasing concentrations of CO2 increase the infrared opacity of the atmosphere, reducing the amount of heat which can escape into space. Yes, most of the CO2 in our atmosphere is a result of natural processes, but there exists a delicate natural balance between CO2 producers and consumers. The ever increasing rate at which we are releasing additional CO2 through the burning of fossil fuels has resulted in a 31% increase in its atmospheric concentration since the dawn of the industrial era, upsetting the natural balance and accentuating the greenhouse effect.

Ready for the backlash

Skeptics may easily pour scorn over these assumptions – citing research criticizing the physics of the greenhouse effect based on studies of the upper troposphere, citing temperature patterns which demonstrate anomalies in our climate patters unexplained by contemporary climate models, and disputing current global temperature measurements.

We could stay up all night to argue each specific point, conceding and gaining ground on each individual issue. However, the breadth of the topic and the range of scientific disciplines that it encompasses are such that no one person can claim to fully understand the complete truth, and it is for this reason that I believe a more macro level approach to its analysis is required.

Therefore, my position on the green side of the fence is based on the following three key principles;

Dependence – We are critically dependant on our climate. The production of food, the design of housing, the availability of land and the flow of water are all dependant on our Earth’s weather patterns. The level of this dependence is not always absolute, but is such that accommodating the changes required to mitigate shifts in our climate will be expensive and slow to implement.

Exploitation – Extracting billions of tons of material from the ground, burning it and releasing its stored carbon into the atmosphere, whilst simultaneously exploiting every natural resource on the planet to the limit in order to feed a global society that has ever increasing consumption as a core objective cannot continue indefinitely without consequence.

Management – The processes by which we manage our environment are at best inconsistent and at worst fundamentally flawed. We consistently pander to narrow interests, fail to take a global view, and have little concept of the future when making important decisions concerning the future of the resources that sustain us on this planet. This has to change.

Closing thoughts

Am I an alarmist? Am I ignoring important facts? Am I naive? Am I too gloomy? Or am I just plain wrong?

Well I am almost certainly not 100% correct – nobody is – but based on my best judgment these principles provide enough reason to take action and make changes.

The real debate, of course, is on the precise nature of these changes and our path towards them. Managing this change may be the most complex undertaking of mankind to date, and with so much at stake it is arguably the most critical. It is for this reason, that TalkClimateChange enjoys the views of those such as Daryl who approach the problem from different angles, challenge our assumptions and critique our proposals.

The criticality of the situation deserves such debate, and the proposals and beliefs stated on this website are much stronger for it. But I still think Daryl is wrong about global warming..

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Reader Comments

Before Daryl jumps in here I’d like to say one thing.

Mark, that was the most eloquent article coming from your side I’ve ever read. Well done!

Thanks. And I’m looking forward to Daryl’s response which will no doubt be enlightening!

Since the expectation for my rebuttal seems very high, I really have to make a point here.

The above referenced comment actually is in reference to “Catastrophic” climate change. Here is the entire quote.

“Today we are rushing blindly forward under the constant whips of our new environmental overlords to implement anything so as to not appear to be impotent in the face of a global catastrophe that does not exist.

That’s correct, it does not exist - the minuscule change in global temperature is insignificant to the planet and to the climate in particular. To even think that we can somehow pick our climate and control the patterns of storms and floods by regulating a gas created or consumed by every living thing on the planet is so amazingly arrogant that it defies explanation.”

I appreciate the physics and the science to the point where I understand the need for monitoring and researching the climate. Yet we are not doing that, we are just running about like chickens sans heads and banging into everything and each other.

Here is a link to GISS Temp that shows the number of surface stations used to measure the earth’s temperature.
GISS Station Data

We have less, not more, stations, if we were studying this with any sort of zeal we would have more stations deployed to better increase the resolution and understanding of the system.

Plus we do now have data that proves the earth is not warming while CO2 is increasing faster than ever. It actually might be cooling depending on who you believe in the temperature record department.

Now that is called “natural variability” by the climate faithful, the same phenomenom that I was told repeatedly did not factor into the recent warming trend of the last century. While the recent period 2000-2008 is not long enough to be a trend, looking at the natural inputs to climate I think it is the start of one, my opinion of course, but the writing on the wall says the CO2 levels and the temperature have decoupled.

Something that was used by AGW scientists to discredit a solar and cosmic ray theory, they stated that the cloud cover and cosmic ray intesity de-coupled after 1994 and so the theory is invalid.

Next the theory that is in dispute is not the AGE one, we all except that. The theory in question is the one about the climate being dominiated by positive feedback, you see the CO2 based warming of 1-1.5C for doubling is widely accepted. The theory in contention is that positive feedback from other GHG releases as a result of increased temperatures with lead to catastrophioc climate change. I do not subscribe to this theory.

Next we cannot even quatify the human impact on temperature from the natural noise in the system, the contribution is so small as to be undefinable. This is what we are really dealing with here, an unmeasurable effect and over-inflated climate sensitivity theory.

Yet we want to remake society using technologies that do not even exist nor do we even get a chance to study the impact of new forms of energy before they are rushed into service at the whim of the climate phobic, like lets say, bio-fuels, something that was warned against but never listened to because people like me, the calm ones in the room, are cranks and crazies and deniers.

The rest of how I feel is laid out in my previous quoted post. So I will not rehash my green and blue positions.

I will just leave you with one thought….

The IPCC say we need techonology that is basically atmospheric processing to solve this crisis ( they call for a net reduction in CO2, meaning we need to remove the long lived GHG from the atmosphere ourselves to avoid climate catastrophe ).

Could you imagine the possible side effects of removing more CO2 than the natural balance, which we do not know is, I can make up a lot of doom scenarios but that would make me an environmentalist.

Just something to think about when you couple it with the “artificial” track record of the environmental movement who have caused more ecological problems than they have ever solved, ask me about this sometime when you have several hours.

Please overlook the above typos, it is early and only one cup of coffee into the day.

Just for clarity.

I do not believe in Catastrophic Climate Change, so the warming we have experienced is of no consequence to the climate as a whole, only if you believe in “tipping Points” and runaway greenhouse effects does this play into your climate phobia.

That is why we are missing the IPCC models targets, the climate sensitivity theories are over stated. The crux of your argument regarding the fragility of climate.

The climate is not fragile, it is violent, with extremes of all types whip-sawing about. It has been and always will be the one force on the planet that we cannot overcome and all the technology in the world will not protect us from it’s effects.

We accept earthquakes, we accept volcanoes, we accepted hurricanes and floods until AGW started up. So what has changed? Nothing has changed.

Accept that and the path ahead is simple, adaptation and change based on resource management, not irrational fear of invisible gas boogeymen.

We will be ready for when the oil runs out, we will be ready for when the uranium is mined out and all the coal is gone. That is just not going to be in your lifetime, sorry.

We are on that path already so stop back-seat driving humanity with your taxes and trading schemes. Look ou tthe window and enjoy the ride.

Well Mark, I’d say you were just wrong.
Your first and third points depend on a belief about ’sensitivities’ and ‘delicate natural balance’ for which there is no evidence. Climate has coped with impacts previously (eg large volcano eruptions) and recovered, showing it is in fact quite stable, rather than poised at some vague ‘tipping point’ as claimed by the alarmists.
Darryl is right - just look at the data and anyone can see there simply is no catastrophic warming taking place.

Can I also object to the phrase ‘green team’. I’m green - I recycle everything I can, I have compost heaps in my garden, I belong to several conservation organizations. I just don’t believe in the religion of man-made climate catastrophe.

Thanks for the comments. Some good thoughts there worthy of consideration and of a proper reply as always.

Won’t be able to give your inputs the response that they deserve right now (1.15am) , but will follow up later – with some comments and I think probably a follow-up post.

Mark.

@Daryl
Yep, you’ve certainly met my expectations in terms of providing plenty to think about!

It would be meaningless at this point to go into a tit-for-tat on climate data, and there are other discussions which go far more in depth, so for now I’ll just say that I disagree and save that battle for later.

You say that you don’t subscribe to the theory of feedback from GHGs leading to “catastrophic” climate change. I guess this is one of the key points of our disagreement, and I’ve drafted a follow-up post to explore that (slightly) more deeply.

You say “Could you imagine the possible side effects of removing more CO2 than the natural balance, which we do not know is“. To that I would say that the natural balance is CO2 – massive amounts of fossil fuels dug up and burnt.

I will concede however that the one area where climate modeling does need improvement is in the prediction of the impact of various mitigation scenarios. Climate is a dangerous thing to mess with in all directions.

The rest we will continue to discuss..

@Paul, “There is no evidence” is a rather blanket statement. As for the climate coping previously, see my point about dependence and 6 billion people being dependant on food, water, land and other things which our climate provides..?

I put that one, the scenario of less CO2 in the atmosphere, in because the effect of less CO2 would be far more devastating than the effect of more CO2 in the atmosphere.

Just like an Ice age would be worse than any Global Warming. Yet I can say with 100% certainty that there will be another Ice Age ( as can every climatoligist, geologist, paleo-climatologist and every other “gist” ), I cannot say that about catastrophic global warming, nor can anyone else.

There is an interesting quite long and technical article about this crucial ’sensitivity’ question at http://climatesci.org/

A very well written piece Mark. You know that I am a skeptic of AGW, but I can appreciate a well thought out argument to back your position.