Fly Me To The Moon, But Not Via Heathrow Airport


This post was originally published at EcoWorldly on 24th March.

airliner Today I have returned home having travelled via London’s infamous Heathrow Airport - known disaffectionately by many frequent flyers as Hellrow. I can fully appreciate this sentiment among travellers and can safely say that by just about any measure, Heathrow is the world’s worst airport. And it’s about to get a whole lot worse..

Having had a minor makeover in the form of a new terminal building which brings some aspects of travel via Heathrow into the 21st century, most travellers are still subjected to an experience which does more to discourage flying than any environmental campaign could ever hope to achieve.

However, the real controversy at Heathrow right now concerns the proposal to build a third runway in response to ever increasing demands for capacity. This proposal has a significant environmental footprint; carbon emissions from additional flights alone will be equal to the those of the entire nation of Kenya, up to 4,000 houses may be bulldozed, including the entire village of Sipson, a graveyard and several historically relevant buildings.


Unsurprisingly there has been some resistance, and not only from environmental groups. All four of London’s mayoral candidates, the UK Environment Agency and many members of Parliament, including all of the government’s opposition parties have voiced strong objections to the scheme. Indeed, it appears that the only proponents of the scheme are the owners of Heathrow Airport, the current British Government and British Airways.

The Alternatives

However, there are many citizens who are happy to sit on the fence on this issue, or who simply believe that there are no alternatives. With ever increasing pressure for more flights and more airport capacity, isn’t an additional runway inevitable? This is the central question to the issue - without a good set of answers it almost certainly is inevitable in the name of the holy grail of economic progress.

So, without having thought too hard about it, here are the initial answers which I rattled off over a bottle of wine and some dinner last night:

  • Realistic Long Term Economics: Looking at the reverse side of the issue that started the whole discussion - what are the true and long term economics of the scheme, including all hidden costs? The third runway will cost approximately £12 billion ($24 billion), and have a payback period of around 50 years. During that time period it is highly likely that increasing fuel costs, and increasing political bravery on climate and environmental issues may dampen current demand - after all, if aviation continues to grow indefinitely at the current rate then we are looking at an entirely new and very serious set of problems. Maybe we should check the real figures once more?
  • A Natural Cap - If the British Government really is serious about achieving its ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets, then surely limiting the expansion of aviation through natural infrastructure constraints provides a very easy method of capping emissions? In the long term it must be easier and less expensive to limit flights through available runways rather than through artificial measures such as carbon taxes?
  • Substitutes and Alternatives - Many short haul flights from Heathrow could easily be substituted by rail. Experience in France and Germany has shown that high-speed rail can easily out-compete short haul air travel, with domestic flights in those countries being virtually non-existent. Details on the number of flights to popular nearby destinations such as Manchester, Paris and Edinburgh are hard to obtain, although freeing up these take-off and landing slots may go a long way towards alleviating current capacity problems.
  • Regional Expansion – Many of the UK’s regional airports are under-developed and offer few destinations, whilst travellers drive hundreds of miles along some of the world’s most congested motorways to reach Heathrow at an estimated cost to travellers of £400 million per year. If the UK must have more air travel capacity must it be centralised in one of the most congested areas of the planet?

I would welcome an improvement in the travel experience at Heathrow airport as much as anyone - I use it frequently and I’ve no objection to economic progress. What I do object to is the lack of foresight in many planning decisions and the frequent selection of the easy option. Building an additional runway at Heathrow is a certain solution to a growing problem – but it is a solution, not the solution as many people think.

What do you think?

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Reader Comments

The Heathrow debate can simply be addressed by a simple statement of fact. Air travel uses a hub management system, with hub Airports acting as transfer points. Heathrow is a major European hub for International Travellers.

Heathrow can simply withdrawl itself from that group and take the loss associated.

The answer is simple, grow your airport to handle the capacity or simply have the capacity sent somewhere else and give up the economic input to the country.

I personally fly BA because I like to stop over in London for a pint and some fish and chips, but I can simply fly through Paris or Frankfurt in the future. The UK is seldom my final destination, but I overnight there often leaving a few hundred Pounds behind each time, but if you do not want my money or the millions of others like me that travel through each year, no problem.

I am also not transferring to a train to cross central Europe adding 12-20 hours to my travels after flying for 9 Hours to reah the UK.

Again people look at this the wrong way, it is not all the UK people travelling on short haul flights congesting the airport, it is mostly the International Hub Traffic.

Here is an Interesting Report from BMI to put that in perspective
20:20 BMI

20:20 BMI

It Appears I messed up the link above

Regarding realistic economics, the 2000 Department for Trasnport report, published 20004 says:
Says:
“A2.12 Aviation fuel prices The price of oil is assumed to stabilise around its current value of $25 a barrel, although in the longer term it may decline. As fuel is approximately 10% of costs even a 50% change in the price of oil has a modest effect on air fares but nevertheless a significant one compared to other drivers.”

http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/aviation/atf/airtrafficforecastsfortheuni281
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/aviation/atf/airtrafficforecastsfortheuni281?page=10#a1031

Peak Oil may or may not already be here, but if not, it’s coming soon.
It’ possible that the traffic predictions depending on $25 oil might not be right.

[I’ve done my time in Heathrow. When we come to UK these days, we use Manchester.]

Transfer passengers add only minor economic value in comparison to passengers flying directly into London who spend time and money there. There is an argument for focusing capacity on direct passengers only, particularly considering that smaller long haul aircraft such as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 look set to super-cede the hub & spoke model with smaller and direct flights between destinations.

However, in terms of transferring to rail, Paris is 2.5 hours from by London by train (to the city center, not Charles de Gaulle on the outskirts). I forget the distance to Brussels, but with the right investments it is unlikely that your journey will be significantly lengthened.

There are some further perspectives on the Heathrow fiasco in The Economist this week: http://web.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10924139

This is my point, Heathrow should remove itself from the list of Major Hub points and only except final destination passengers arriving. If the UK feels the money generated is not wanted any longer, I agreee.

Also my destination is never France, it is usually Central or Eastern Europe, I usually have an 1-2 hours flight after London. Like I said it makes no difference if I arrive through Frankfurt or Paris to me.

So I think from a economic “wake-up call” perspective I think that Heathrow should not expand and the UK should remove it from the gateway hubs list.

I think the countries with the most ambitious “Green Dreams” need to feel a lot more pain so they can understand what us “denier” folks have been telling them. Especially when it makes no substantive difference to their GHG emissions in the end.

How will carrying less passengers per plane help with hub management?

If anything it will increase traffic as you will not have feeder flights consolidating at hubs.

The sales pitch on these models are fuel efficency and range. When dealing with Intercontinental Distances the range is of no use.

This is a solution for flights with lower passenger counts from smaller markets and to allow for increased frequency to International destinations from medium and large markets.

“If the UK feels the money generated is not wanted any longer, I agree.”

My understanding is that revenue generated from hub-traffic is minor in consideration of

a) the fact that up to 2million residents of London stand to be further affected by expansion at heathrow

b) Only a portion of the revenue is received by the UK directly

c) Heathrow will never compete with hubs with far greater capacity due to more sensible locations such Charles de Gaule and Schiphole.

Regarding the A350 & B787 - these aircraft will cause flights to be more geographically distributed and therefore undermine the whole hub & spoke model in the first place.

I would love to greatly expand on all of this, and make my comments far more cordial in nature, but I’m under some time pressure today. Would love to continue this in the pub..

Regarding the A350 & B787 - these aircraft will cause flights to be more geographically distributed and therefore undermine the whole hub & spoke model in the first place.

This will increase the number of planes taking off and landing at major destinations like London, as feeder hubs will not be consolidating passenger loads from markets, they will be flying in direct. This will increase the frequency of trips but reduce the passengers handled, as more frequest schedules will be offered in the medium and large markets as well.

The hub model was developed not as a leap-frogging system based on range, but on the realization that every airport cannot directly service every other airport, the traffic by aircraft count would be too dense.

We can argue the economics all day, but I once again simply state, “Do it” and take the hit. Due to all the interdependencies in a transportation services system the true effect will be unknown until experienced, perhaps the residents of London will be better off, either way the UK will have to live with the decision.

New aircraft reduce the load on hubs by allowing direct long rang flights between regional airlines. There are more aircraft flying under this model, but they are distributed over a wider number of airports, and they have similar emissions per seat kilometer.

“We can argue the economics all day, but I once again simply state, “Do it” and take the hit. Due to all the interdependencies in a transportation services system the true effect will be unknown until experienced, perhaps the residents of London will be better off, either way the UK will have to live with the decision.”

I think that probably sums up the crux of our odds on this issue.

I think that the hit will be worth it all things considered. I may well be wrong, but what concerns me, and what motivated the post is the prevailing thinking that economic hits can never be considered whilst environmental sacrifices can.

Ok just as a side note the entire idea of landing on a graveyard freaks me out, reminds me of the title of the movie I watched last week, “Flight of the Living Dead”. All I need is disturbed ghosts appearing in the landing lights making pilots avoid them….

Gives me the willys.

From a pure economic perspective:

IF it is a good idea to invest in more London airport capacity, is it more cost-effective to expand Heathrow or to expand in {Gatwick, Stansted, Luton}? (That’s a real question, not a rhetorical one.]

Nowhere is it written that a large metropolitan area must have just one monster airport, rather than several more moderate-size ones spread around.

NYC has 3 major airports: JFK, Laguardia, Newark.

SF Bay Area has 3: SFO, Oakland, San Jose.

Los Angeles has a bunch, which is *really* important, because if one is traveling from somewhere in LA to SFO, it can easily take longer to drive to LAX than to fly from there to SFO :-)