Who Really Needs More Runways?


airliner There is a bit of an ongoing tiff right now about the expansion of London’s Heathrow airport with an additional runway. Those of you who have experienced Heathrow will know that the airport in itself is one of the strongest arguments ever for not flying, however, UK aviation continues to grow at a substantial rate.

Substantial enough to encourage green activists to climb atop a plane at Heathrow airport last week, and to climb on to the roof of the Houses of Parliament, unfurling banners protesting at the airport expansion.

Strong words

Strong words have been spoken on both sides of the debate. London Mayor Kenimage Livingstone claims that the case for expanding Heathrow has yet to be made on  either environmental or economic grounds and has called for an expansion of rail travel at the expense of short haul flights, according to Britain’s Daily Telegraph.

WWF campaigner Pete Lockley told Reuters: "Aviation accounts for about 13 percent of Britain’s climate impact. That percentage will rise very sharply as the number of flights doubles and efforts are made to cut emissions elsewhere."

image At the same time, an aviation industry spokesman has come up with a different twist on the argument: "Aviation is responsible for two per cent of global carbon emissions and is growing at a slower global rate than power generation and industry. Heathrow’s expansion is of national importance if jobs are to be safeguarded and created, both locally as well as in the City and across the country."

Meanwhile, The British Government  have said very little, being obviously confused about how they will meet their Co2 emissions targets without upsetting at a large percentage of the population.

Another option?

It has been observed, during frequent trips through London’s airports during the past 10 years, that the increase in travellers is being fuelled not by business, but by cheap leisure travel. A resident of any of the cultural capitals of Europe will attest that ever since airlines worked out how to fly you from London to Prague for less than the cost of an evening in a Pizza Hut, many European cities have been overrun by groups of Britons on stag weekends.

image A Saturday evening in the centre of many European destinations has become indistinguishable from an evening in the average British city centre, resembling a larger fuelled battle zone, and gigantic outdoor public toilet all in one.

The solution may be to advertise overseas weekend rail travel instead, an option which could have manifold advantages; The EuroTunnel might become profitable from the additional traffic and trains could have special weekend boozer carriages, selling cheap alcohol and encouraging urination in corridors.

To keep things even more simple, trains could transport weekend revelers to a purpose built village in sparsely populated Northern France or Belgium. Once there the drinking tourists would be free to vomit in the streets, loose their passports and be arrested just as they would in any other city. It’s unlikely they will spot the difference.

Sources & Further Reading:

The Daily Telegraph (1), The Daily Telegraph (2), Reuters

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Reader Comments

What a dismal picture you paint.. just as i was to write about American manners vs British behavior overseas.
better contain them all on separate islands. no more runways, quick shut down the tunnels and highways..
i’ll find other means to transport business, that’s what clean and efficient telecommunications are for.

Well, I’m maybe exaggerating slightly, and I am talking about a small subset, although it doesn’t take many to make a difference. I’m only adding a little flavour when I say that Prague has been transformed from an oasis of culture into a weekend binge drinking club.

As a Brit I am very curious to read your post about overseas behaviour!

Ignore climate change for the time being.

In the light of Peak Oil, why does anyone believe that cheap, mass air travel will persist through the life of the proposed Runway 3? Surely, one would expect it to last 50 years, so that’s through 2070. I’m American, and stopped flying through Heathrow years ago, but I still have British relatives, so … is this a good investment for the UK?
======
David Strahan, “The Last Oil Shock”, http://www.lastoilshock.com/

Kenneth S. Deffeyes, “Beyond Oil”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

ASPO, http://www.peakoil.net/

John, I wonder what you make of this:
http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/hysteria_history.pdf

I think the green team would have us all stay home instead of having any sort of leisure activity outside the same range as the 100 Mile Diet.

The new runway at Heathrow would address some major congestion problems and lead to better efficency. Stacking is a real problem and can mean holding times of 30-50 minutes per flight. That is several 100s of millions of litres in fuel wasted and millions of tonnes of CO2 emitted for no unsolvable reason.

There is also safety considerations as well. Emergency landings can stop airport operations completely, and they are more common than you think.

With additional alternate runways planes are not forced to hold outside the markers for long periods during emergency landings.

I guess the primary fear would be increasing overall capacity.

Since air travel is so vilified in the current social climate, I can understand the resistence. Yet I cannot really follow the logic.

It is no different than public transit, it moves hundreds of thousands of people everyday. Yet PT is seen as a good thing.

You can always drive to Prague, is that a better alternative?

“It is no different than public transit, it moves hundreds of thousands of people everyday. Yet PT is seen as a good thing.”

The difference is the level of greenhouse gas emissions. Considering the complete lifecycle of aircraft with their aiports, and comparing with roads and rail and so on, what you get is that long-haul flights have about the same per distance greenhouse gas emissions as your average small car, short haul flights about 60% more, buses about 10% as much, and rail about 5% as much.

Relative impact matters.

So if that is true then just using a consumption to distance ratio for jet fuel emission vs gasoline, each person would require on a long haul flight the equivilent fuel to drive the distance?

Right… I can see how that works out.

So on a 10,000 km flight, driving in car with (35mpg) 6.7 l per 100 km equals 670 litres per passenger of Jet fuel emission equivilency or 712 L per passenger.

CO2 Emission Convertor

A 747-400 consumes 8.63 litres per km or 86,300 litres for the trip.

Boeing 747 Facts

At 712 L per passenger means the break even with a car with 35mpg equivilent emissions the load count is 121 people.

Average Passenger count on 10K km trips is 226.

Meaning the litres per passenger are actually 381 litres or 46% less.

But the plane also carries an additional 20 tons of revenue freight.

Need I go on to shorter flights?

Metyu:
Well, I assume you meant the section on peak Oil, that being the relevant topic.
A: What do I think of it: not much, regarding Peak Oil, they show have appearance of being clueless incompetents with an agenda … and that’s harsh, so I’ll explain why I think so.

During the 1990s, as Chief Scientist at SGI, I used to work with senior petroleum geologists to help them doing seismic analysis and reservoir modeling, and I gave invited talks at events like Landmark Graphics (now part of Halliburton) user conferences. Besides their visits to our HQ, I saw them at places like: San Ramon, Calgary, Denver, Houston, Rio de Janeiro, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Dhahran [not an easy place to get a visa for], Zho Sen (China, not sure of spelling, was home of the Petroleum Institute), Perth, and a few I’ve forgotten. If you know the oil business, you’ll recognize some of the companies implied. [San Ramon = Chevron]. One reason I was doing this was because my pre-Computer Science PhD background was math&physics, and some lwork in geosciences (my first publication was on coal analysis for the US Bureau of Mines), so I could speak their language.

I don’t know the numbers for sure, but I probably helped sell >$500M of supercomputers and visualization systems to these guys. I spent a lot of time with them working through their problems, goals, and what we could do for them. Such conversations bear little resemblance to what oil company execs sometimes say in public…

Why were they spending increasing amounts of money on computing?

A: the easy oil was mostly found, and even great oilfields were peaking, and they had to work even harder to extract the oil. Even the greatest of all, Al Ghawar (not far from Dhahran) was seeing increasing water cuts in the mid 1990s. Matt Simmons’ “Twilight in the Desert” is an excellent study, and what I heard when I visited the Gulf certainly didn’t contradict him one bit.

Neither of the co-authors is:

a) A top petroleum geologist, or any kind of petroleum geologist.

b) Donald Paul, who just retired as CTO after a 33-year career at Chevron.

c) ex-Chairman of Shell Oil UK, Lord Ron Oxburgh.

d) Richard Branson.

e) or seems well-informed enough to know the CERA is famous for the most optimistic reports, along with ExxonMobil.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
or see discussions in TheOilDrum:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3487

I’ve talked to a lot of a), and I remember the general tenor of what they said. [The easy oil is found, and we need better reservoirs models.]

I asked b) what he thought about Peak Oil, and he certainly thought it was real:
http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9803819-7.html?tag=head
Or, you can go to
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RegtowaDVJU
and if you start a little after 5:00, someone (me) asks him about Peak Oil and you can see the answer, which accords with everything else I know.

I’ve know c) for years, and he’s pretty clear: both peak Oil and Global Warming are serious problems. You can find what he says at:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2981
He is a PhD geoscientist who used to run Imperial College and got brought in as Chairman to clean up Shell after the scandals. I strongly recommend reading that, and you might also read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report , done for the US DOE several years ago.

I don’t know Branson, but he just said:
http://globalpublicmedia.com/branson_nuts_to_peak_oil
Why do you think he’s investing in biofuels?

Anyway, even if I hadn’t worked with a), I’d certainly listen very hard to b), and I always listen hard to c).

With regard to Peak Oil, the authors of that report are simply clueless incompetents who make wrong assertions with utter certainty … or else their writing is geared for the ideology of PRI (”under no circumstances may government regulate anything”) and its funders, which include ExxonMobil, Charles Koch Foundation, Sarah Scaife Foundation, [i.e., Big $Oil],etc. PRI is a little more mellow than, say the George C. Marshall Insititute, or CEI, AEI, SEPP, SPPI, FoF, etc … but after all, it is out here in San Francisco…

There is absolutely no benefit for the rich families who own many of the world’s oil businesses if the world develops alternatives that slowly make up the difference, and inhibit the price of oil. It’s much better (for them) if people ignore the problem as long as possible, which means that fuel gets to take a larger share of the world economy as people have to buy it.

Exaggerating alarmists are silly, but “don’t worry, there is no problem” polyannas are worse.

Remember, I asked is this a good long-term investment for the UK? I’m fond of the UK, and maybe it is a good investment, but I wish the document describing it had included Peak Oil into the growth projections. Otherwise, runway 3 will be what economists call a “stranded asset” that has cost the UK a lot of money.

So: Metyu: Please go look at some of my references; read Oxburgh especially, then reread the PRI document and let us know what *you* make of it.

My two cents on alternative transport options.

I’ve read somewhere that the new Airbus A380, when full, gives a similar fuel consumption per mile as a small family hatch back.

The real issue with aviation, I understand, are the high altitude NOX emissions, longer distances which people are encouraged to fly, noise, and one or two other things.

Personally, I have always had a thing about high-speed rail, which I blogged about here recently: http://ecoworldly.com/2008/01/31/rail-travel-in-europe-racing-with-trains-planes-automobiles/

What would be really exciting, from a geeky engineering point of view, would be the construction of a trans-atlantic rail tunnel. I read about that recently on Wikipedia.

John, thanks for your comprehensive response. I haven’t time at the minute to look at all your links, but I will.

Matt Simmons suggested a while back that the “real” price of oil is around $170pb. This seems reasonable to me, and will obviously have repercussions.

Overall I am confused about peak oil at the moment. There is a lot of conflicting information out there. I’ll let you know how/if your links change this perspective! Thanks for the response.

As you know I am too a great fan of high speed rail for domestic travel. The crossing “the pond” issue has always intrigued me. As we open the sea floor to more uses, this may evolve naturally. Of course the environmentalists will block it every step of the way.

I also am a huge fan of air travel, I think that there is alot of speculation about high altitude emissions. Since they cannot get the quantifiable effect of even the now 50 year old AGW theory nailed down I will reserve judgement on that.

Next air travel is straight line travel, all ground based travel is subject to geography, as a test get a map of the world, using a compass and the scale draw a 2500 km circle around your city, Then look up the driving distances to towns within that radius.

Next I made a omission in my previous post, I looked it up since and that is the average passenger count on long car trips is actually 1.2 persons. So the figures need to be adjusted to show this.

Since the average car’s, due to North America’s poor CAFE standards, mileage is really about 29mpg and I used 35mpg we can call it a wash.

The recent supply of peak oil posts in this thread is keeping pace with the steady supply of new oil reserves we keep flagging here in my country.

While this is not a theory, it will or has occurred, it is an undercurrent to the whole situation globally.

Of course we do not have an infinite supply of oil. The question is do we have enough until we can come up with a real alternative that does not involve turning our food supply into fuel plus meets the whole GHG reduction plans.

I think that anyone or group who believes we were just ignoring the issue has their collective heads up their collective backsides.

Do you really think that we cannot come up with an alternative powered flying conveyence that will not need an airport? The airport is infrastructure, just like a train station, a switching yard or a bus loop. Investment in it is important, regardless of the GHG emissions of whatever ends up using it.

I understand the “solar powered blimp” requires a rather substantial area for terminal services.

John,

Are you the John Mashey who wrote the letter to the editor of Skeptical Inquirer last September stating basically the magazine should spend some time and effort to marginalize AGW skeptics as they are not real skeptics, but rather “organized” psuedo-skeptics?

ClimateHeretic (11)
1) I’m a “fan” of air travel, too, I used to be a 100K guy, and I still prefer flying from SFO to Kelowna to ski, rather than taking 2-3 days to drive each way.

2) My comments had nothing to do with whether flying is better or worse than other transport, or its relevance to greenhouse effects, or any moral issues or any of that.

3) My question was very specific: is a big expansion of long-lived infrastructure at Heathrow a good investment for the UK or not, in the light of Peak Oil. Did they factor efficiency trajectories of air fleets versus likely fuel price increases? Do they have scenarios and models for that? Is it possible to discuss that? I looked at the 239-page UK “Consultation - Adding capacity at Heathrow Airport” and maybe I missed it, but I didn’t find anything useful. Maybe I missed it. Could anyone who knows point me at a copy of it and where it addresses the peak oil / fuel price issue in a reasonable way. I also looked at the UK Department for Transport’s 2000 Air Traffic Forecast, which says, of forecasts going to 2020:

“A2.12 The price of oil ia sssumed to stabilize around its current value of $25 a barrell, although in the longer term it may decline. As fuel is approximately 10% of the cost even a 50% change in the price of oil has a modest effect on air fares but nevertheless less significant one compared to other drivers.”
Well that was done in 2000 [and it’s not 10% any more.] Passenger traffic is the big driver, and leisure traffic is especially elastic with regard to price. Does that forecast (oil stable at $25) give you great confidence?
Until someone shows me something serious, I will conclude that the most relevant people either don’t understand the issue or are sweeping it under the rug.

When there’s an elephant in the living room, I don’t mind if somebody says: “There’s an elephant here, and we’re not sure how big it is, but it might be big, but it has promised to go on a diet, and in any case, we have plans for building a new door so it can leave, and even if it stays big, we like it so much we’ll spend more of our income feeding it.” However, if I read multiple hundreds of pages or reports about plans for the living room, and elephant is never mentioned, I get nervous.

I might or might not agree with their analysis, but at least I’d understand they weren’t ignoring the problem.
“I think that anyone or group who believes we were just ignoring the issue has their collective heads up their collective backsides.”

Well, I don’t know who “we” is, and in any case climateheretic isn’t BAA or the UK DfT, but so far, *they* seem to be ignoring the issue, at least in what they say publicly. If somebody can show me otherwise, I’ll change that opinion in an instant. it of course is in BAA’s interest to expand Heathrow, and the costs may or may not be in the UK’s interests, but they need to at least recognize the elephant.

Remember: in 2000, DfT thought that the price of oil stabilizes at $25/barrel, maybe down, through 2020.

I don’t know what it will be, and as for Athabasca oil sands saving everything, please read what Lord Oxburgh says. [You do know Shell is involved up there? Actually, I’ve talked to the Shell guy who used to run a big chunk of that, another Imperial College geologist … and it’s hard work. It’s not Al Ghawar] Anyway, opinions are nice, but knowledge is better.

John,

Couldn’t find the PRI report? But enjoyed the rest, thank you.

The problem I have with peak oil is the name. “Peak” implies (to many that use it in climate change debates) a particular time (e.g. 19:47 on the 7th May 2009) when demand goes beyond supply, and at that point the world economy collapses and we all implode (or some other nasty equivalent).

Your wider point re: Heathrow is more interesting. The economic modelling will (should?) have taken year by year price forecasting into account, so I can only imagine that the effects of peak oil are included… I couldn’t put my hand on my heart and say I believe that was the case, though. I imagine if the price of oil goes up, people will just pay the extra cost?

And what about Beijing’s new airport, the biggest building in the world?

Too much for my brain on a Sunday night, I’m going to bed! Thanks for the posts though - interesting.

M.

Greenhouse gas emissions are not only caused by burning fuel in vehicles. Building things, including the vehicles, also causes quite a lot of emissions.

That’s why I said, “Considering the complete lifecycle of aircraft with their aiports…”

Air travel has a high relative impact in greenhouse gas emissions terms, compared to other forms of travels, on a per distance travelled basis.

metyu (14)

The “PRI” report is the one you posted the pointer to.

Peak Oil: the name may conjure a mountain peak, but it’s what professionals in the field call it, even if it’s a plateau.

John,

My point is about this particular subject, the Heathrow expansion, is that are you posing the question that because of peak oil and no mention of it in any studies, there can not be any informed decision as to the need to expand the capacity of the airport?

Or that a prediction in oil prices missing the mark somehow invalidates the underlying demand or need.

Like I asked do you really think an alternative powered form of aviation will not emerge before the end of oil?

My comment about new deposits had nothing to do with the oil sands, they are pretty much discovered. It had to do with new small to medium size traditional deposits in southern Saskatchewan and Northern BC.

I am glad to hear you love Big White, I assume you have also visited Silverstar in Vernon.

The expanded Kelowna Airport plan must be welcome news as well. ( Just had to toss that one in there )

climateheretic(12):

“Are you the John Mashey who wrote the letter to the editor of Skeptical Inquirer last September stating basically the magazine should spend some time and effort to marginalize AGW skeptics as they are not real skeptics, but rather “organized” psuedo-skeptics?”

I wrote a letter, but I wouldn’t summarize it as you have … and neither did the SI Editor Kendrick Frazier, with whom I had many email conversations on this.
He wrote the title: “Reaction Supporting Our Coverage: Be More Skeptical of Warming Deniers.”

This was in response to an article by NASA physicists Stuart Jordan, and an editorial by Ken. I applauded the topic, but thought he didn’t distinguish between ordinary classic skeptics and others trying to claim the mantle, and wrote him so, in a long not-for-publication email.

In the first wave of letters, mine was the only positive one. He was stunned, especially by the level of vituperation, including people who read the first two paragraphs of Stuart’s article and then canceled their subscriptions. I offered to clean up my earlier note into something short enough to be a letter, and that was what he printed, more-or-less.

While off-topic,but since it was raised, here’s the letter, although Ken did a little editing and deleted a few pieces, shown in [brackets]. He kindly gave me a full 3-column page. Anyone who cares can evaluate for themselves, and letter itself is topical for this website, although not the current thread.

=the letter to Ken=

It was great to see a good discussion of AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming) science, but SI needs more study of the organized pseudo-skepticism here. It is structurally different from most SI-covered topics, in a way that can easily mislead SI-style skeptics. Many are 2-way fights, where one group has an unshakeable belief supported by changing pseudoscientific arguments, opposed by rational skeptics using science. Skeptics often hear extreme beliefs, apply Carl Sagan’s “Extraordinary claims…” rule, assume the beliefs are unlikely, and that the group critical of those beliefs is more likely correct, and if they care, study the issue more deeply.

But, AGW is different, a 3-way fight: one group of non-skeptics, rational skeptics, and a second set of non-skeptics.

First were “alarmists”, who believed for various reasons that humans should return to a less-industrial economy, and seized on early AGW ideas, in advance of strong evidence. Tales of doom have been used for fundraising for NGOs. I read a book describing the Arctic in the year 2100, and saw: “You search in vain for the seals, walruses, and penguins that used to live here in large numbers.” Arctic penguins? That made me doubt AGW for a month, all by itself.

Second, well-informed rational skeptics include climate scientists and anyone else who has taken the (substantial) time to carefully study the evidence. Over several decades, mounting evidence and understanding have convinced such people that AGW is real and will cause real problems, without going to the extremes of alarmism.

Third are “denialists”, whose unswerving goal is to stop any action on AGW, and work back into obfuscating AGW science with well-practiced tactics. Denialists love to be called skeptics (they aren’t), and they label everyone else as alarmists, including climate scientists (they aren’t). Quite often, SI-style skeptics new to AGW get so irritated at the alarmists, that they end up getting psychologically “anchored” into denialism as its opposite.

Think: how likely is a worldwide conspiracy of almost all climate scientists and editors of top journals to fake AGW? Is that more likely that getting misinformation about AGW from members of a K-Street lobbiest organization sometimes funded by ExxonMobil and run by an ex-American Petroleum Institute executive?

Your Editor’s Note was sadly unskeptical of “global-warming skeptics.” Some run well-financed, well-organized, well-coordinated efforts to propagate disinformation, and few currently contribute anything useful to climate science, even if a few once did decades ago. They are happy to be given a free pass as skeptics. Please don’t hand it over.
===

If people parroted creationist arguments directly from the Discovery Institute, would you call them “evolution skeptics”? If people obfuscated the science of the smoking-cancer link, using RJ Reynolds misinformation, would you call them “tobacco-cancer skeptics?” I think “denialist” (or “denier”) fits much better. AGW-denialists are as likely to accept evidence for AGW as the DI is to accept that for evolution.

The vocal AGW-denialist “industry” churns out reports, Op-Ed pieces, articles, letters-to-editor, and TV shows, and does lobbying, but little or no peer-reviewed research … just like the creationist industry. It is tightly-interconnected web of funders, think-tanks, foundations, lobbiests and “astroturf” front organizations, with a small sprinkling of scientists, few of whom have published relevant peer-reviewed research …

Even a normal skeptic can get misled (I was, for about 6 months!) as much of this sounds plausible. It is always easier to sow confusion than create clarity. If one’s earliest AGW exposure is such, it is easy for someone to get “anchored” there if they aren’t careful. People may believe (or profess belief) something about science, but for non-scientific reasons like economics, politics, ideology, philosophy. Denialist misinformation often plays to those other reasons.

(Economics): there is zero benefit to oil or coal companies in CO2 restrictions. If people are told that AGW science means that their living standard will go down, they may well disbelieve the science. (Politics): if either George Bush or Al Gore said “The Sun rises in the East”, some people (different groups!) would be looking for the Sun in the West … but that’s not really a good way to do astrophysics.

Normally-skeptical people (including scientists/engineers outside their discipline) seem especially susceptible to being misled by the AGW-denialist industry. Why? Alarmists irritate real skeptics, as in the vanishing Arctic penguins. Movies like “The Day After Tomorrow” don’t help. But alarmists being wrong doesn’t make denialists right.

In fact, over the last 20 years, real climate scientists have moved from thinking AGW might be happening, to thinking it is very likely, and being able to better quantify the effects. This field has progressed tremendously in those decades, of course, with the usual back-and-forth jiggles as hypotheses get confirmed (or not) as more data arrives.

A skeptic should distinguish between classic alarmists and credible climate scientists who have spent decades of careful study, and now say that the evidence for AGW is very strong, and that basic physics makes continued temperature rises very likely for many decades. The AGW-denialist industry tries hard to conflate classic alarmists with world-class scientists, to use the irritation at former to weaken the conclusions of the latter.

[For example, consider James Hansen: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen

I see a scientist at the top of his profession, a NAS member who writes in careful, measured tones, but expresses concern about topics on which he is an expert. I take no one on faith, because even Nobel prize winners occasionally go off the deep end, especially towards the end of career. But I have worked with other NAS members, and I listen to their opinions carefully, rather than those who have been misled, often into repeating misinformation that I’ve seen replicated among denialist-industry websites, and long shown to be incorrect, but repeated again and again.

But, Google: james hansen alarmist gives 50K hits… denialists have been effective.]

After I got interested in AGW (late 2001), I averaged about an hour a day for several years reading books from all viewpoints, got the full IPCC volumes, tracked down primary research articles, and watched web pages. I started with AGW-skeptic books, and actually thought they made sense, but over time, I learned better. For instance, I read Fred Singer’s “Hot Talk, Cold Science”, and it actually sounded pretty good (in 2001), until I did enough study to realize the numerous problems, many of which still exist in his newest (2007) book, long after the ideas have failed the tests of science. Later, I learned about his relationships with the George C. Marshall Institute (K-Street), tobacco companies, ExxonMobile, etc.

I think that any real skeptic (in the SI sense) could only reach certain conclusions:

First, the scientific evidence in favor of AGW was overpowering. Climate science was progressing as science usually does, giving better and better approximations to reality. There were arguments around the edges, as there always have been. Contradictory-seeming data eventually got explained, or
else was found in error, as in the case of ground stations versus satellites. It was clear that the basic AGW thesis was well-accepted by almost all relevant scientists.

Second, it was also clear that there was a strongly-dissenting group of people, but after a while, it became clear that even the scientists in the group were not behaving as such, and they seemed to have definite agendas deriving almost entirely from politics or economics, not science. Occasionally, a scientist was hanging on to a theory after accumulating evidence should have disproved it.

Some of them turn out to be paid by ExxonMobil, the Western Fuels Association, or other groups who absolutely do not want CO2 limitations or encouragement of non-fossil-fuel energy. Some are funded by highly-conservative political groups/foundations who believe that any such restrictions will infringe on
their rights, or think AGW can’t be happening simply because the UN’s IPCC says it is happening, or perhaps worse, that Al Gore says it is.

Some AGW-denialist tactics are similar to those of DI (”teach the controversy”). Some anti-AGW tactics are similar to those of RJ Reynolds Tobacco in fending off recognition of the smoking-cancer
link. This is unsurprising, as some of the same people fought tobacco regulation, CFC regulation, and now AGW … such as Fred Singer and Frederick Seitz.

[Here are a few pointers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy

On ExxonMobil & others:
http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/ExxonMobil-GlobalWarming-tobacco.html
http://www.sourcewatch.org (for funding sources)

Fred Singer, Frederick Seitz, George C. Marshall Institute, SEPP
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Singer
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Seitz
http://www.marshall.org/
http://www.sepp.org/

Greening Earth Society … i.e., Western Fuels Association, Patrick Michaels:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greening_Earth_Society
(This is an “astroturf” organization.)]

Anyway, I beg all SI readers to get informed as proper skeptics in this topic. The core anti-AGW people are denialists, not skeptics, but they are unusually good at fooling skeptics.

John
#14, ah yes, “reread” should have given that one away. I think their summation is fair enough, we are finding more oil, and people have been predicting the end for nearly a century. I think Lomborg is also worth reading on the subject (many AGW-ers and environmentalists hate him, but he is peer-reviewed and published by one of the best academic publishing houses in the world).
I think the timescale makes it relevant to Heathrow. However going on past experience, we are fairly likely to hit a world war over resources through political stupidity, or possibly but less likely big business holding governments to ransom, before the oil really starts to run out, particularly with energy efficiency measures and better technology.
#18 “Think: how likely is a worldwide conspiracy of almost all climate scientists and editors of top journals to fake AGW?”
This statement misses some points. Climate scientists - like those in the IPCC - agree that a 1oC rise by 2100 is a likely result of man-made CO2. It is the feedbacks that cause the problem, and predictions of these are based - as is all good science - on assumptions. I wonder if these assumptions include anything about effects of the 99% of sea-floor we haven’t explored? Or are they trying to prove a point?
The political responses arising from IPCC statements, and the responses from newspapers, are the interesting thing and whether conspiracy or not, there are certainly maneuverings from the powers that be about what to do as a result of all these things. Or are you telling me that all the world’s military generals are just ignoring the climate change debate?
My starting point as a sceptic, or denier, or whatever else you are inclined to call me, arises from my studies, combined with becoming aware of Rajendra Pachauri.
Having seen him talk, I find his responses to adaptation – and indeed to criticism – are less than enlightening, and fully in line with all the tools of empire I read about during my studies. I wonder what you make of his CV.
“Your Editor’s Note was sadly unskeptical of “global-warming skeptics.” Some run well-financed, well-organized, well-coordinated efforts to propagate disinformation, and few currently contribute anything useful to climate science, even if a few once did decades ago.”
My scepticism has nothing to do with the science, and everything to do with the response… maybe that’s because I am not paid by anyone. There is enough doubt in the science, and enough similarity between the proposed responses and development policies that have in the past been shown to be crazy, for me to be sceptical. (Actually my personal approach is far more pragmatic than scepticism but that’s another matter).

Think: how likely is a worldwide conspiracy of almost all climate scientists and editors of top journals to fake AGW? Is that more likely that getting misinformation about AGW from members of a K-Street lobbiest organization sometimes funded by ExxonMobil and run by an ex-American Petroleum Institute executive?

Well I do not know which is more plausible, but lets follow the money.

In BC, Canada this year…

100 Million for the new Climate Change Research Center

48 Million for Biofeul from wood and waste initiative - research

250 Million Dollar Innovative Clean Energy Fund - Research

14 Million for Adapatation Strategy research

39 Million for Green policy development and advertising - Selling the public on the other programs

This is all pure research, no action items. That is whole different spending spree.

Plus Cap and Trade later in the year to generate more revenue for more programs.

Seems to me the scientific community has got a little gold rush happening.

Do not get me wrong, I believe in investing in science, but these are new AGW only programs as we already have many other science programs.

This in just my province, almost half a billion dollars in 1 year, paid for by a little over 2 million taxpayers.

So how plausible is it to get on board, be in the “requires more study boat” and ride the tide of new research money? Bucking the concensus gets you ZERO research money.

Good idea, CH, let’s talk numbers.

In the UK, we are cutting spending on university research, and libraries, to name just two.

http://www.nouse.co.uk/2008/01/23/library-budget-cut-for-second-time-in-two-years/

http://forum.npc.org.uk/cgi-bin/ikonboard.cgi?act=ST;f=15;t=181

http://www.newscientist.com/blog/space/2007/12/uk-researchers-reel-from-budget-cuts.html

“it will cut a damaging swathe through the UK’s astronomy and physics community”

As I understand it, similar things are happening in America. Why, when there are more people and thus more people paying tax, should we need to cut spending on anything? Particularly education! It is one of the building blocks of English society.

Ok layman’s question but you get the idea… you’ll have to forgive me for being conspiratorial, I am English, and we invented social control… and our partners in crime this time around seem to be ze Germans led by the Climate Fuhrer herself.

And, while we’re pondering the possiblity of a worldwide conspiracy, remember that the IPCC is the authority on the subject.

All other data sets and research around the world stems from the IPCC.

And then there is scant opportunity for anyone to put their voice across. If anyone tries, they get slated by Real Climate (et al).

Or alternatively they are accused of being paid by oil companies, which seriously underestimates the (political, economic and natural) complexities of this planet.

Metyu,

The US is experiencing the same problem as the UK in general science and education funding. The US has increased funding to climate change amd mitiagtion targetted research. While overall science funding has decreased. Example 2.1 Billion in Clean Coal research.

I just watched a CNN report that says that many US colleges loan institutes have suspended their student loan programs for the fall semester, including the government guaranteed loans. Result of the credit crisis.

Here in Canada we have been blessed with a fairly robust economy, complete with low debt loads and surpluses.

I would be interested how many new AGW specific programs have been put in place in the UK outside of academia or even at the cost of other science funding.

All these programs I discussed in just my province are new and while the Pacific Climate Research Centre is adminstrated by an University, most are government run programs.

Each country works with the budget they have, but I am sure if you get inside your energy bill you will find R&D money there, plus they tend to hide programs inside areas like agriculture and industry.

You have to read all the budgets to find the easter eggs.

So I agree that general science funding has stagnated or declined but AGW specific research initiatives have popped up with cash to spend.

“I would be interested how many new AGW specific programs have been put in place in the UK outside of academia or even at the cost of other science funding.”

That’s a good question, I’ll have a look.

Seems I got my hats mixed up earlier with the “Fuhrer” comment. I should save that sort of thing for the meeting at the docks tomorrow night.

CH: SilverStar, Apex, SunPeaks, also.
Kelowna Airport is fine, with an $8M plan to lengthen the runway this year, likely a very good short-term investment, and Kelowna residents seem quite keen on it. Of course, it also has plenty of open space.

metyu:
“I think their summation is fair enough, we are finding more oil, and people have been predicting the end for nearly a century.”

OK, you clearly believe what you want to believe.

I prefer to believe the Nobel Physics winners, US National Academy of Science members, Fellows of Royal Society, ex-Chairman of Shell, climate science Professors at world’s top universities, IPCC authors and similar people that I talk to. For example, here’s a talk I heard 3-4 years ago at a local 30-person meeting from Nobel physicist Burton Richter:
http://www-group.slac.stanford.edu/do/brichter/presentations/2004_10_05.htm
You might notice that Gore’s AIT has a lot in common with the first third of this.
I don’t think I’m smart enough to totally ignore these sorts of folks, but you folks might be, so I can’t add anything to what you know.

John,

Kelowna has a taxpayer population of 60,000 with an average income of $29,000 Cdn.

Only 8 Million you say?

Kelowna businesses are for for it, the tourist based economy relies on it.

But if we run out of oil as you say would the 8 Million not be better spent towards creating an electric rail line serving all the communities of the Okanangan Valley?

John,

“OK, you clearly believe what you want to believe.”

Well, thanks for allowing me that option. I certainly don’t believe anyone incapable of convincing me.

Fortunately, I am now convinced that Peak Oil has passed. How was my mind changed? Simple: someone who knew their stuff pointed out that demand currently lies at 86 million barrels per day, while supply is at 85 million barrels. Having the figures to back up claims is a wonderful thing.

The great thing is, peak oil has passed and we’re all still alive! Thank goodness for that!

M.