From Climate Change to Climate Changed - When Climate Change is no Longer News
We talk a lot about ‘predictions’ for global warming, and we tend to think of it in the future tense. But there is mounting evidence each day that climate change is not something that will happen in the future – we are feeling the first real impacts right now.
The Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking faster than ever predicted. Sea levels are rising faster than expected, the United Kingdom is experiencing consistent flooding, wildfires are raging throughout the world and temperature records are being continually broken.
The economic impacts are being felt right now too, both in terms of mitigation cost and direct cost. The insurance industry is reporting increasing costs due to increasing climate induced disasters, and property owners are finding it difficult to get coverage in some cases. In Europe we see the first signs of strain between businesses and policy makers as governments attempt to reduce emissions.
And the media report more and more evidence every day.
Meanwhile our response continues to build momentum, but at a much slower pace. Like a super tanker slowly turning as it rushes towards the rocks, the first small changes are taking place as public awareness gradually rises. Policy makers discuss carbon emission reduction targets for 2020 and further targets for 2050, but the rocks aren’t that far away and the bow of our economic super tanker is slowly running aground already. Time to abandon our current economic set-up and think about the lifeboats?
Well it’s clear that it just isn’t practical for our super tanker to change course altogether. We talk about 2020 and 2050 emissions targets for a reason, and that reason is called practicality.
The real question is just how big the rocks are, and how much damage can our ship sustain? Jumping in to the lifeboats right now might be premature - we face too much uncertainty and have too little reliable information to make an informed decision.
The most likely answer is that we will learn to live with and manage this uncertainty just as we deal with other uncertainties in our world. For a long time we have dealt with political and economic uncertainty with a reasonable degree of success. In time we will learn to manage environmental uncertainty also. We will get used to high energy prices in the same way that some nations are used to high taxes. We will plan for and consider the possibilities of freak weather in the same way that some regions plan for earth quakes. And we will consider the environmental component in our investments in the same way that we consider the other myriad of risks.
Eventually climate change will stop being news, and just become another of the uncertainties that we try to manage and mitigate on a daily basis. Future generations will talk about a time when we thought we could stop climate change, of how we procrastinated for several decades and then how we just started trying to live with it..



“The Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking faster than ever predicted. Sea levels are rising faster than expected, the United Kingdom is experiencing consistent flooding, wildfires are raging throughout the world and temperature records are being continually broken.”
Oh, come on, really. The Arctic SEA ice reduced in area more than for the past few years, but only to about where it was, as best as can be told, at least twice in the last century, and it is now returning with a vengeance. The Antarctic sea ice was, at the same time at as great an extent as has been seen since 1979, when satellite observation started. As for the latest report, it seems that the ice melt is indeed man made, but only by the comparison of real world with a model. See
http://www.junkscience.com/ByTheJunkman/20080117.html
Sea levels aren’t rising and the flooding in the UK is a combination of severer weather than usual, gross neglect of the drainage systems and the stupidity of building on flood plains.
Wildfires have been in evidence since long before man started interfering, but then they simply cleared the underbrush at regular intervals. Now for a number of years, especially in the USA, wildfires have been stopped as soon as they started. Predictably, with 20/20 hindsight, it is clear that this was a dumb move, because the underbrush got thicker and drier, so, guess what? When a fire started it was big enough and hot enough to burn the tall trees that used to survive fires. Maybe man’s interference, but not glowarming.
As for temperature records being broken, we are in a warming phase, no-one disputes that, so of course they will be, but note that it is by infinitesimal amounts. It’s also worth noting that the unusual “Snow in Baghdad” was also the first time for 100 years! What caused it the last time? Not glowarming!