Bali – reasons to be disappointed
With some irony, between 15,000 and 20,000 politicians, officials, activists and journalists will have flown this weekend to Bali, putting serious strain on the islands resources to attend the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
All expectations are that nothing tangible will result beyond making some vague agreements over future plans. Many people will be disappointed on many different levels.
But isn’t this a global emergency? Don’t we need to take action right now? Yes, the consequences of a changing climate are serious indeed, but there are a number of factors which you won’t hear the attending politicians talking about which will drive the outcome next week:
- The Science: it still isn’t clear enough. The mass media, and therefore any politician who is seeking re-election will tell you that the science is done. It isn’t. There is more than enough credible science which says that Co2 is driving global warming. But there is a similar amount which says that it isn’t. Most serious punters would put their money the former, but it’s going to take some time for the scientific community to call the result.
- Vision: Too many people still believe that reducing Co2 emissions will cripple economies. No doubt some expensive investments will be required, but ultimately moving to a renewable and more sustainable energy supply can only be a good thing. Even if Co2 is found to be irrelevant to global warming, future generations will thank us for our foresight. Unfortunately 4 year election cycles are not compatible with long term vision.
It’s always difficult to decide on action by committee, especially when the committee is as large and represents the wide range of interests that we will see at Bali. The US won’t agree to binding targets unless India and China do likewise, and vice-a-versa. This provides the perfect excuse to wait out for item 1 to be resolved and it draws attention away from item 2.
The positive news is that we may well see long term commitment in principle to tackling the problem being universally approved, albeit without concrete agreement on action.
The negative news is that it will probably take several more rounds of 15′000 person long haul flights to come up with any kind of actionable plan. What kind message does that send out to people who are being asked to conserve energy and pay green tax bills?
See also: What can we expect from Bali, Good News of Bad News?
Update: A few numbers on Bali related Co2 emissions, courtesy of the Daily Telegraph:
Co2 created by travel to and from the conference: 100,000 tons
Co2 created by conference venues & hotels: 13,000 tons
No of trees required to offset the conference: 136,987